Ten years after the UK embarked on a hurried referendum that divided the nation and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two leading writers from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there will be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but very few politicians or campaigners are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer endorses unity or the current situation. They composes two articles that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling financial and social data, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," said the writer. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin must establish what the proposal from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a reckless or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he commented. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
